Despite a period of significant economic turbulence—including international conflict and domestic policy shifts—Oakland County’s economy is expected to see a steady, gradual recovery through 2028, according to University of Michigan researchers.

In the 41st annual Oakland County Economic Outlook, the U-M Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics notes that while the county remains one of Michigan’s primary engines for growth, its recent labor market performance was hampered by high interest rates, a record-long federal government shutdown and the outbreak of war in Iran.

“We are hoping that a less volatile policy and macroeconomic environment will create a more conducive backdrop for Oakland’s fundamentals to shine through,” said RSQE Director Gabriel Ehrlich.

Ehrlich co-authored the forecast with RSQE economists Donald Grimes, Michael McWilliams, Daniil Manaenkov and Jacob Burton.

“Oakland County is not just a participant in the global economy, we are a premier destination for it,” said Oakland County Executive David Coulter. “Our economic fundamentals remain the gold standard, contributing more than 22% of Michigan’s gross domestic product.”

A path toward resilience

While researchers estimate the county lost approximately 3,700 private-sector jobs in 2025—a detour from previous growth projections—the new forecast anticipates a return to positive momentum. Payroll employment is expected to increase by 0.3% over the course of 2026, 0.5% in 2027 and 0.3% in 2028.

A major bright spot is the local labor force, which is forecast to reach an all-time high of 695,000 residents by 2028. Additionally, the county maintains a significant wage advantage: Average real wages are projected to rise to $79,800 by 2028, roughly $9,100 higher than the statewide average.

Key sectors expected to see varied performance

• The construction industry remains a source of strength, with employment projected to reach its highest level since 2001 by the end of the forecast period.
• The private health and social services sector also remains a durable engine of growth for the county; the sector is expected to add an average of 1,400 jobs annually through 2028, despite federal funding challenges.
• Manufacturing experienced a loss of approximately 2,800 jobs in 2025, but a rebound is expected from 2027 through 2028 as the reopening of GM’s Orion Assembly plant helps the automotive sector regain 1,400 jobs.
• The finance and insurance sector reached its highest employment level of the 2000s in 2025 and is expected to continue adding an average of 720 jobs per year over the next three years.
• Professional and Technical Services, Oakland’s second-largest industry, is projected to lose 2,600 additional jobs through 2028.
• Retail and Hospitality trends suggest traditional brick-and-mortar retail is expected to lose 500 jobs annually due to e-commerce expansion, while accommodations and food services are projected to hold steady at 2025 levels.

Maintaining a national advantage

The report highlights that Oakland County continues to outperform other counties nationally, ranking 11th overall among 27 similar U.S. counties. The county remains a leader in educational attainment, with nearly 64% of adults holding at least an associate degree, and maintains a child poverty rate just under 8%—less than half the Michigan average.

By 2028, the county is expected to have largely recovered its pandemic-era job losses in most sectors, sustained by its status as one of the most economically resilient counties in the nation with a high concentration of professional jobs, Ehrlich said.